# Energy Market Research Report - India

**Generated on:** 2026-02-19 12:28:24.878764  
**Industry:** Energy  
**Geography:** India  
**Details:** CEA developed stellar model to forecast energy demands across india, you need to get the detailed report for the company who developed this model, where are the documentation, product demos and how its being deployed accross the country, its alternatives.

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# India’s STELLAR Resource Adequacy Model — Deployment, Documentation, and Strategic Implications (2025–2035)

## Executive Summary

The Indian power sector has undergone a paradigm shift in planning methodology with the launch of the **STELLAR** (State-of-the-art Totally indigenously developed Resource adequacy model) by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) on April 11, 2025 [1] [2]. This move transitions India from static, siloed planning to a dynamic, chronological simulation framework essential for integrating 500+ GW of non-fossil capacity.

**Key Strategic Insights:**
* **Standardization of Planning:** STELLAR is now the mandated tool for Resource Adequacy (RA) planning across all Indian States and DISCOMs. The CEA has already utilized it to complete RA plans for all DISCOMs up to the 2034-35 horizon [2] [3]. The software is distributed free of cost to democratize access to advanced modeling capabilities [1].
* **Developer Ecosystem:** While the CEA is the custodian, the model was co-developed with **The Lantau Group (TLG)** under a Technical Assistance program funded by the **Asian Development Bank (ADB)** [4] [5]. This collaboration bridges indigenous requirements with international best practices in economic dispatch and storage optimization.
* **Documentation Status:** Public documentation is currently limited to high-level press releases, methodology papers (e.g., Capacity Credit Methodology, Feb 2025), and output reports (State RA Plans) [6] [7]. Direct software downloads and user manuals are not publicly indexed and are likely restricted to state utilities upon request.
* **Strategic Urgency:** With peak demand projected to hit ~260 GW by 2027 and data center capacity expanding in metros, STELLAR's ability to co-optimize storage and Demand Response (DR) is critical to avoiding stranded thermal assets and ensuring zero load shedding [8] [3].
* **Deployment Momentum:** Early adoption is evident with RA plans published for states like Goa, Telangana, and Bihar [6]. Training initiatives, such as the December 2025 workshop at MNRE, indicate a push to build institutional capacity at the state level [9].

## Indian Power Market Landscape — High VRE Growth with Rising Peak and Reliability Needs

India's power sector is navigating a complex transition characterized by rapid demand growth and a massive shift toward variable renewable energy (VRE). As of late 2025, the total installed capacity stands between **505 GW and 514 GW**, with non-fossil fuel sources accounting for over **51%** of this capacity [8] [10] [11].

### Installed Capacity, Generation, and Peaks — 2020–2035 Numbers That Drive RA
The scale of India's grid expansion is unprecedented. Electricity generation has surged to an estimated **1,824 Billion Units (BU)** in 2024-25, up from 1,168 BU in 2015-16 [12]. The installed capacity has grown from 305 GW to a projected **475 GW** in the same period [12].

Looking ahead, the CEA projects India will surpass **1 Terawatt (1,000 GW)** of installed capacity by 2034-35 [8]. This massive fleet will require precise orchestration to maintain stability.
* **Thermal Reality:** Despite the renewable push, the CEA estimates a requirement of **307 GW** of thermal capacity by 2035 to ensure baseload stability [13]. However, coal generation actually fell by **3%** in 2025 due to high renewable output and milder weather, signaling potential utilization risks for thermal plants [14].
* **Renewable Targets:** The roadmap includes **1,200 GW of solar** and **400–450 GW of wind** by 2047, necessitating robust flexibility resources [8].

### Demand Drivers — Data Centers, Industry, and Electrification
Electricity demand is growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of **7-8%** [8]. Key drivers include:
* **Industrial Load:** Continued expansion in manufacturing and heavy industry.
* **Data Centers:** A pipeline of **1.5 GW** in data center capacity across Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Chennai is creating localized, high-uptime demand clusters that require firm power solutions [8].
* **Global Share:** India's share of global primary energy consumption is projected to double by 2035 [12].

### Major Players and Investment Signals
The market remains concentrated among key incumbents who control approximately **42%** of installed capacity. Major players include **NTPC, Adani Power, Tata Power, JSW Energy, and Reliance Power** [8]. Investment flows are heavily skewed toward renewables, evidenced by ONGC/NTPC's acquisition of Ayana Renewable Power for **Rs 19,500 crore** [8].

## STELLAR: What It Is and Why It Matters — India’s Standardized RA Engine

**STELLAR** represents a leapfrog in India's power planning capabilities. Unlike previous static models, it is a **chronological, unit commitment-based optimization tool** designed to solve for the least-cost system configuration while ensuring reliability [2] [15].

### Technical Core — Chronological UC, Ancillary Co-optimization, DR as a Resource
The model's architecture is designed to handle the variability of a high-RE grid:
* **Chronological Simulation:** It models power system operations chronologically, capturing the time-dependent nature of wind and solar generation [2] [4].
* **Unit Commitment (UC):** It respects technical constraints of thermal plants, including **technical minimums, ramp-up/ramp-down rates, and minimum up/down times** [2] [16]. This is crucial for assessing the true flexibility of the coal fleet.
* **Co-Optimization:** Uniquely, it co-optimizes energy, ancillary services, and storage sizing/location simultaneously [2] [17].
* **Endogenous Demand Response:** It treats Demand Response (DR) not just as a load subtraction but as a supply-side resource that can be dispatched to lower system costs [2] [15].

### Governance and Build — CEA + TLG with ADB TA
While branded as "totally indigenously developed," the model is the product of a strategic collaboration:
* **Developer:** Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
* **Technical Partner:** **The Lantau Group (TLG)**, an economic consultancy specializing in APAC energy markets [4] [5].
* **Funding/Support:** **Asian Development Bank (ADB)** provided Technical Assistance (TA) [2] [5].
* **Investment:** In June 2025, the Power System Development Fund (PSDF) monitoring committee approved **Rs 5.35 Crore** for the purchase of **31 GAMS software licenses** for the STELLAR tool [18]. This confirms the model relies on GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System), a high-end optimization platform used for complex MILP (Mixed-Integer Linear Programming) problems.

### Alignment with Policy — MoP RA Guidelines
STELLAR is the operational arm of the Ministry of Power's **June 2023 Resource Adequacy Guidelines** [2] [19]. It ensures compliance with national reliability metrics:
* **Loss of Load Probability (LoLP):** Target of **0.2%** [19].
* **Normalized Energy Not Served (NENS):** Target of **0.05%** [19].
* **Planning Reserve Margin (PRM):** Determined annually via the Long-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (LT-NRAP) [19].

## Developer Profile: The Lantau Group (TLG) — Capabilities and Role

**The Lantau Group (TLG)** is a boutique strategy and economic consulting firm focused on the Asia Pacific energy sector. Their involvement lends significant credibility to the STELLAR model's economic logic.

### TLG Capabilities and India/APAC Casework
* **Expertise:** TLG specializes in market design, dispatch modeling, and valuation of energy assets. They have deep experience in nodal pricing and capacity expansion modeling [20] [21].
* **Key Personnel:** **Mike Thomas** (Managing Director) brings 30 years of APAC energy experience. Notably, **Alok Kumar**, the former Secretary of Power (GoI), is a Partner at TLG and was present at the STELLAR launch, bridging the gap between policy intent and technical execution [2] [22].
* **Case Study:** TLG used the STELLAR platform to conduct a nodal-level capacity expansion study for **Madhya Pradesh**. The study demonstrated that co-optimizing Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) could reduce the state's coal capacity requirement from **23 GW to 16 GW** by 2035 [20].

### Risk/Dependency Management
The transition of a former Power Secretary to a partner role at the firm developing the national planning tool creates a perception risk regarding conflict of interest [23]. To mitigate this, the CEA has emphasized that the tool is "indigenous" and distributed free of cost, ensuring that the IP effectively resides with the government for public use [1] [2].

## Where the Documentation and Demos Are — Authoritative Sources and Gaps

While the model's outputs are public, the software itself is not available for open download. Access is restricted to state utilities and authorized stakeholders.

### Authoritative Resources
| Resource Type | Title / Description | Access / URL |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Official Launch** | PIB Press Release (PRID 2121429) - Apr 13, 2025 | [2] [Link](https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2121429) |
| **Output Reports** | CEA Resource Adequacy Portal (Hosts 30+ State RA Plans) | [6] [Link](https://cea.nic.in/resource-adequacy-study-report/?lang=en) |
| **Methodology** | Methodology for Capacity Credit & Coincident Peak (Feb 2025) | [6] [Link](https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/notification/2025/02/Methodology_for_Capacity_Credit_of_Generation_Resources__Coincident_Peak_Requirement_of_Utilities_Under_Resource_Adequacy_Framework.pdf) |
| **Training** | MNRE/CEA Training Workshop Note (Dec 15, 2025) | [9] [Link](https://www.facebook.com/MNREMinistry/posts/a-full-day-training-programme-on-the-stellar-state-of-the-art-resource-adequacy-/1167562385519921/) |
| **Unverified** | "Stellar Tool" Document on Scribd | [24] [Link](https://www.scribd.com/document/976199970/Stellar-Tool) |

### Accessibility and Next Steps
* **Software Access:** There is no public download link. DISCOMs and SLDCs must request access directly from the CEA Resource Adequacy Division.
* **Demos:** No public video demos exist on YouTube or government portals. The primary mode of demonstration has been through physical workshops, such as the one held in New Delhi in December 2025 [9].

## Nationwide Deployment — Coverage, Training, and Early Outcomes

The CEA has aggressively rolled out STELLAR to ensure a unified planning framework across India.

### Timeline and Coverage
* **National Coverage:** CEA has completed RA plans for **all DISCOMs** and a national-level exercise up to the **2034-35** horizon [2] [3].
* **State Adoption:** Specific RA reports have been published for states including **Goa, Telangana, Bihar (BSPHCL), and Gujarat (Torrent Power)** [6].
* **Kerala Case Study:** The Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEBL) received hands-on training and the software copy. Hardware installation was scheduled for completion by **January 2026** to enable independent runs [25].

### Integration with Grid-India/NLDC/STU
The model's outputs feed directly into the operational planning hierarchy:
1. **LT-DRAP:** DISCOMs use STELLAR to create 10-year plans.
2. **LT-NRAP:** CEA aggregates these to form the National Plan.
3. **ST-NRAP:** NLDC uses these inputs for the 1-year look-ahead adequacy check [19].

### Case Signals
In **Kerala**, the RA study using STELLAR highlighted a critical risk: without new capacity additions, the state faces **13,868 MU** of unserved energy (24.8% of requirement) by 2035-36. This finding directly supported the target for **550 MW / 1600 MWh** of battery storage [25].

## Regulatory and Policy Context — How RA Obligations Shape Procurement

The regulatory framework has shifted from "meeting demand" to "meeting reliability targets."

### Compliance Cadence and Enforcement
* **Submission:** DISCOMs must submit their Long-Term Distribution Licensee Resource Adequacy Plans (LT-DRAP) to the CEA by **September** [19].
* **Approval:** Plans must be approved by State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) by **November**.
* **Contracting:** Contracted capacities must be submitted to SLDCs by **January** for the delivery period starting in April [19].
* **Enforcement:** SERCs are empowered to levy non-compliance charges if DISCOMs fail to meet RA obligations [19].

### Implications for Stakeholders
* **Utilities:** Must shift to probabilistic planning. The "free" nature of STELLAR removes the barrier of expensive software procurement.
* **Generators:** The 10-year horizon provides long-term visibility on the "Optimal Generation Mix," aiding investment decisions in long-gestation projects like Pumped Hydro [19].
* **Financiers:** The mandate for **75-80% long-term contracts** reduces off-take risk, improving bankability for new projects [19].

## Alternatives and Complements — Tool Comparison for India’s RA

While STELLAR is the mandated "common tool," utilities often use other software for validation or specific operational studies.

### RA/Expansion Planning Tools Used in India

| Tool | Developer | Key Features | India Adoption / Use Case |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **STELLAR** | CEA / TLG | Chronological UC; Co-optimization of Storage/DR; Free for States | **Mandated** for RA planning; Used for National & State Plans to 2034-35 [2]. |
| **PLEXOS** | Energy Exemplar | Nodal pricing; Stochastic optimization; Mature commercial support | Used by private utilities (e.g., **BRPL**) and consultants for detailed market modeling [26] [27]. |
| **IESS 2047** | NITI Aayog | Scenario-based pathways; Web-based; User-friendly | Used for high-level policy scenarios and decarbonization pathways; lacks detailed dispatch logic [28] [29]. |
| **PyPSA / OSeMOSYS** | Open Source | Transparent code; Flexible; Low cost | Used by academia and think tanks (e.g., IITs, Prayas) for independent policy research [30] [31]. |
| **Calliope** | Open Source | Spatially explicit; Scenario optimization | Used for district-level modeling (e.g., Bangalore) to study local grid constraints [32]. |

**Strategic Insight:** STELLAR is positioned as the *regulatory standard*, while PLEXOS remains the *commercial standard* for private players requiring bankable, independent audits.

## Risks to Adoption — And a Mitigation Playbook

Successful nationwide adoption faces hurdles in data quality, skills, and infrastructure.

### Key Risks and Controls
1. **Data Quality & Interoperability:**
 * *Risk:* Inconsistent input data (e.g., forced outage rates, ramp rates) across states can lead to "garbage in, garbage out."
 * *Control:* CEA notified the **"Methodology for Capacity Credit"** in Feb 2025 to standardize inputs [6].
2. **Computational Infrastructure:**
 * *Risk:* Running complex MILP models (GAMS-based) requires significant compute power, which many SLDCs lack.
 * *Control:* PSDF funding for GAMS licenses [18] helps, but cloud-based or centralized run-centers may be needed for smaller states.
3. **Human Capital:**
 * *Risk:* DISCOMs traditionally lack modeling expertise.
 * *Control:* Continuous training workshops (like the Dec 2025 MNRE session) are essential. Certification of state planners should be a priority [9].
4. **VRE Uncertainty:**
 * *Risk:* Correlated weather events (drought + heatwave) can stress the grid beyond average-year plans.
 * *Control:* STELLAR's chronological simulation must be stress-tested against extreme weather years, not just "typical" meteorological years.

## KPI and Monitoring Framework — Measuring Planning Quality

To ensure STELLAR delivers on its promise, a robust monitoring framework is required.

### Outcome Metrics
* **Reliability:** Adherence to **LoLP ≤ 0.2%** and **NENS ≤ 0.05%** [19].
* **Planning Reserve Margin (PRM):** Tracking actual vs. target PRM annually.
* **Unserved Energy:** Monitoring actual load shedding vs. model predictions.

### Deployment Metrics
* **Adoption Rate:** % of DISCOMs submitting STELLAR-based LT-DRAPs (Target: 100%).
* **Capacity Building:** Number of certified planners per state utility.

### Investment Metrics
* **Storage Procurement:** Actual BESS/PHS capacity contracted vs. STELLAR's optimal recommendation.
* **DR Enrollment:** MW of demand response capacity verified and available for dispatch.

## Action Plan — 90-Day and 12-Month Priorities

### Next 90 Days
* **Access:** Utilities should formally request the STELLAR software package and GAMS licenses from CEA.
* **Validation:** Run a "shadow mode" simulation for the upcoming peak season using STELLAR and compare with legacy methods.
* **Data Prep:** Align state-level data with the Feb 2025 Capacity Credit Methodology.

### Next 12 Months
* **Compliance:** Submit the first mandatory STELLAR-based LT-DRAP to the SERC by November.
* **Training:** Establish a dedicated RA cell within the utility, staffed with trained modelers.
* **Procurement:** Issue tenders for storage/hybrid capacity based on the 10-year optimal mix identified by the model.

## References

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9. *A full-day training programme on the STELLAR (State-of-the-Art Resource Adequacy Model) Tool was jointly organized by the Ministry and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) on 15 December 2025 at MNRE, New Delhi. The programme was attended by participants from MNRE, CEA, NISE, IREDA, NVVN, NTPC, and the State Electricity Departments of Puducherry and Goa, along with other key stakeholders. The training witnessed active participation and featured in-depth technical deliberations on resource adequacy planning, capacity expansion, and the integration of renewable energy, energy storage, and demand response. The programme is expected to strengthen institutional capacity and support the effective adoption and application of the STELLAR tool in power system planning.

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